Heightened Expectations & Implications for June Jobs Report

Heightened Expectations & Implications for June Jobs Report

By: Daniel Steingold | July 07, 2016

Friday’s jobs report for the month of June hopes to illustrate a steady increase in employment, following the disappointing results of the May jobs report.

Here are some things to look out for with the June jobs report:

  • While normally a month with 100,000 new hires would be considered steady growth, many analysts argue that there will need to be at least 135,000 total hires, as 35,000 Verizon employees who went on strike will be counted as “new” workers.
  • Projections for the number of new jobs created in June range from 177,000 to 210,000.
  • While it is expected that the unemployment rate of 4.7 percent will not change, if it does increase slightly— to say, 4.8 percent— that might not be a bad sign, as it could signal more individuals are entering the job market.
  • Annualized wage growth is typically about 3.5 percent in current employment conditions; yet, growth in May was only 2.5 percent. Expect a bump in pay growth in the June report.
  • While the Federal Reserve has previously stated they would raise interest rates at least two more times in 2016, certain circumstances— such as the Brexit and May’s weak jobs reports— have caused them to hold off.
  • Regarding interest rates increases, a strong report would likely signal some action on the Fed’s part. A lackluster report, conversely, would suggest that the Fed may be wary to raise rates anytime this year.

The June jobs report will be released at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on June 8th by the Labor Department.

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